Wednesday, August 15, 2007

The Psychology Of.....

This is a subject that eventually everyone will be confronted with.
I see a lot of parallels between a trader and an athlete. You have to work hard to acquire a small edge, you have to stay in shape, mentally as a trader and physically as an athlete, and you have to be able to adapt to the circumstances.
A great trader can make money in any market, equally a great athlete can compete to win on any surface or under any weather condition. No athlete or trader always stays on top. Everyone has losing streaks and 'slumps' which certainly impact confidence, psyche and mental makeup. During those times it is so important to go back and remind yourself of what it is that gave you an edge in the first place. When you're slumping it's very easy to loose sight of that. In my own experience 9 out of 10 times when I have lost money in trading was because I did not follow my own rules and followed my emotions instead. That's when it's time for the penalty box....
Highly recommended: Dr. Steenbarger - The Psychology of Trading: Tools and Techniques of Minding the Market
Dr. Brett also runs an excellent blog, listed as 'traderfeed' in the Links section to your right.

Monday, August 13, 2007

More Tools

I've tried many different charting packages and I eventually settled on Ensign. To me it's the most intuitive and simple to use charting package out there and it just feels right. At the price of $40/month you can't beat it.
For data feed I use Esignal. They are not the cheapest, but I find their feed to be the most reliable.
My broker of choice is Interactive Brokers.
That's it. Keep it simple.

Friday, August 10, 2007

Yippie......not


The market at record highs (this is the longest running cyclical bull in history), record earnings, the economy expanding. So all is blue skies, right? Maybe the message just hasn't been fully received yet. It surely was sent a while back.
If anyone wants to know how to bring this country to it's knees, it's not by military might, terrorist action or any other violent means. It's by crashing the dollar for example, or the stock market, or maybe the entire economy. The US has elegantly maneuvered itself into a soon-to-be impossible position; one where it will be more and more at the mercy of it's foreign creditors with China looming as the largest. That is quite a powerful weapon in China's hands and it should not be underestimated. If it decides to sell off US bonds for example it certainly could cause an economic earthquake, one that the US can hardly afford considering the circumstances. The sub-prime woes have most likely not even reached it's peak yet and with GDP mostly reliant on consumer spending the only question is how long this dance on egg shells can continue. When the money runs out or inflation can't be contained anymore, who'll be left to spend?
There are a lot of players involved in this game called globalization and mostly all of them depend on the US economy to stay afloat in order to keep their own going.
I just can't help but think that the US has submitted itself to becoming a pawn in the quest for global economic world domination.......

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Trading Style (and a bit of history) Pt2.

To continue where I left off in Pt.1 ,Tim Morge's work with medianlines for the first time showed me a tool and technique that really opened my eyes. Prior I used to toy with lots of different indicators such as moving averages, stochastics, macd, divergence/convergence etc. All of these have merit in a particular context, but I didn't know what the context was, because I had no plan. I had no idea what I wanted to achieve other than profits. But what was an adequate profit based on a specific setup? How do I know when to get out? Quite frankly I was lost. To quote Yogi Berra:'Be careful if you don't know where you're going, because you may never get there...' That just about hits it on the nail.
Interestingly enough the one tool that I always felt most comfortable with before learning about medianlines was the good old trendline which I still consider of enormous importance. If you look closely what medianlines are made of, it's basically all trendlines. They are just used a bit differently or in a more unconventional way.
As I studied the work on medianlines, it gave me a great tool to work with and today I view it as one of the anchors in my trading. But at the time I had no idea about the overall picture. What is the state of a particular issue? Is it trending, up or down, going sideways? Is there a long term trend? Or maybe a trend on a shorter timeframe while the issue trades sideways on a longer timeframe? All questions that I either never asked or got a decent answer for.
As I was applying what I learned about medianlines, I had mixed results. I had some great trades and some that failed miserably. Not that I expect every trade to work out, but I just felt that something was missing. I was looking for confirmation. I didn't want to trade medianlines 'naked'. I needed to find areas of confluence. The first tool that came to mind was the application of Fibonacci numbers in trading. You can find a lot of information on Fibbonacci retracements in trading on the web. There've been a number of great traders using Fibonacci retracements who came up with some unique concepts.
That's where Jim Kane came into my trading life. Looking back I call myself very lucky to have stumbled upon Jim's work which is such an incredible body of work that includes completely new concepts, new facts, new numbers and it most importantly covers all aspects of trading. I was searching for some good work on Fibonacci retracements and found so much more.
I am by no means an accomplished trader at this point, but with the help of Jim's work I now have a very solid framework to work with that has proven itself over and over again to the point of astonishement and most importantly one that I can trust 100%.

Saturday, August 4, 2007

Trading Style (and a bit of history) Pt.1

My approach to trading had always been one of technical nature. That's how I trade and I don't know a better way. There are lots of tools available in technical analysis and a very high percentage is useless to me. I do think that technical trading is very subjective and completely dependent on how the tools are perceived and used. I find people using certain tools with great success which are completely useless to me and vice versa. It's like looking at the stars and depicting the great wagon or other constellations. The stars and the universe don't know anythign about these patterns. It is all in the eye of the beholder.
That's how I perceive technical trading. I would actually call it 'pattern trading'. You look for patterns that frequently repeat in certain situations and you hone in on them. Eventually pattern recognition becomes automatic. Someone, I forgot the name, likened it to the waves in the ocean...
The tools I have learned to work best for me can be better understood by checking out the two links in my previous post.
When I first started to learn to trade with medianlines I had previously gone through a long period of trying out various tools and methods. At some point I started trading a small live account thinking that I was ready for trading (or the trading world was ready for me) and quickly realized that I was totally lost on all bases. I had no trading plan in any form or fashion. I did not know how to apply tools consistently or what to trust nor did I trust myself. There was not much of a money management plan in place. Quite frankly I was completely clueless. Stumbling upon Tim Morge's work with medianlines was like an epiphany. For the first time I had a tool to work with that felt right and made so much sense. It was also the first time that I got to see a truly professional and seasoned trader at work. I studied Tim's work, took a couple of seminars with him and knew that going forth this was going to be an essential ingredient in my trading plan. What I didn't have yet were many other things...(to be continued)

Friday, August 3, 2007

Teachers

Under the category 'teachers' I should probably list all the experiences that made me aware of what doesn't work for me and I actually mean this in an honest way, because I really have nothing regrettable to say about that. I am currently reading a fantastic book which is basically a Q&A with a liberated yogi. The book is called "I am that" (listed in the Current Reading section to your right). In it he likens austerity to not repeating the experiences you've already had. That's exactly what I mean. You've had a certain experience and you've gained the necessary knowledge to move on, regardless whether the outcome is good or bad.
Ultimately you are your own best teacher.
When it comes to trading there are two people that stand out for me. They are both great trading minds and fortunately for everyone they have also taken much time out of their lives to teach. Check out the links and draw your own conclusions:
Jim Kane
www.kanetrading.com
Tim Morge
www.medianline.com

Wednesday, August 1, 2007

Tuition

In learning something new we always try to find the best possible ways to acquire the most knowledge. Unfortunately the fastest way is seldom the best way. Often you have to learn by neglect and denial, i.e find out what doesn't work first. This is particular true for trading.
I've made plenty of detours in trying to learn the right stuff from the right people when in fact I learned the wrong stuff from the wrong people. In my view those experiences are crucial in the learning process and aren't mistakes by any means. That's why I call it the tuition. Once you've made plenty of detours, as I like to call them, you'll have a better feel for what's likely to work and what isn't and you have a better grip on weeding out the useless. This is just part of gaining experience.
Once you're past that point you're ready to learn from the people that stand above you in the respective field. People with a proven track record who have the ability to share their experiences and successes which they acquired through years of hard work and trial and error. This is when it gets interesting.